[SMM Analysis] The United States May Consider Restricting the Use of Indonesian Nickel Products in the Future

Recently, the U.S. Department of Labor released a report revealing rights violations in certain industries in Indonesia, particularly in the Indonesian nickel smelting industry. This report not only poses a major setback to Indonesia’s efforts to become a leading global supplier of electric vehicle batteries but also could significantly impact U.S. future supply policies in this market.

Issues Revealed by the Department of Labor Report

The U.S. Department of Labor has listed Indonesian nickel as a product made with forced labor. The report cites numerous news articles and NGO investigations, indicating that most violations are concentrated in nickel smelters on the Indonesian islands of East Sulawesi and Maluku. It states that workers face arbitrary wage deductions, violence, forced overtime, and constant surveillance. Additionally, workers' passports are confiscated, and their movements are restricted, which severely violates international labor standards.

Impact on Indonesian Industrial Parks

The report highlights that these industrial parks, jointly operated by foreign and Indonesian companies, have extremely harsh working conditions. In interviews, workers repeatedly emphasized unsafe working environments, including frequent fires and other safety incidents. Statistics show that between 2015 and 2023, more than 90 workers have died in the nickel refining industry, and the actual number may be higher.

Complex Relationship Between Government and Foreign Investment

The Indonesian government has been promoting a “downstream” strategy to increase the added value of mineral products domestically to attract foreign investment. However, the latest report from the U.S. Department of Labor complicates this strategy. Many projects designated as national strategic projects enjoy various policy incentives but face widespread criticism for labor and working conditions. This has raised questions about the Indonesian government’s regulatory and enforcement capabilities.

International Market Turbulence: Attitudes of the U.S. and Europe

The report has also heightened attention in U.S. and European markets regarding Indonesian nickel. According to the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, batteries and electric vehicles are eligible for tax deductions only if they use minerals from countries that have signed free trade agreements with the U.S., and Indonesia is not included. Meanwhile, the upcoming European Union battery passport will set strict standards for social and environmental risks, which will pressure Indonesian nickel exports.

Policy Adjustments Amid Multiple Challenges

Facing internal and external pressures, the Indonesian nickel industry might undergo significant adjustments. Although Indonesia holds 40.2% of the world’s nickel production and is expected to increase this to 75% in the coming years, it will be difficult to maintain this substantial market share without improvements in labor conditions and environmental standards. Simultaneously, more cost-effective iron phosphate electric vehicle batteries are gaining a larger market share globally, making traditional nickel batteries less competitive.

Future Outlook

The U.S. electric vehicle market has already fallen short of its expected targets due to high prices and tariff issues. Further friction with Indonesia will negatively impact its decarbonization goals. On the other hand, Indonesia will face the risk of reduced market share and profits. Therefore, to maintain international market competitiveness, Indonesia may need to substantially improve labor conditions and environmental standards and seek more favorable agreements with the U.S. and European markets.

In conclusion, SMM believes that the U.S. Department of Labor’s report not only reveals potential real issues in the Indonesian nickel industry but also lays the groundwork for future U.S. policy adjustments in this market. Balancing commercial interests with social responsibility will become a pressing issue for all parties. Although there are market rumors about whether the U.S. will consider political factors to restrict the downstream applications of products from the Indonesian nickel industry, it will be challenging to unilaterally and decisively limit its products' market share as Indonesia is one of the critical suppliers in the global nickel market.